S
Sonora Intel
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Tamaulipas

Critical

Mexico · Mexican state · capital Ciudad Victoria

Risk score
101
composite (0–110)
Homicides / 100k
32
annual rate
Population
3,527,700
Active groups
4
with known territorial presence

Situation

Reynosa, Matamoros, Nuevo Laredo. CDG factional fragmentation. Heavy migrant kidnapping. State-issued travel warnings.

Trade exposure

USMCA tracker →
US-side restrictions affecting this state
  • ActiveManufacturing / maquila · Labor (USMCA Annex 31-A)· USTR / DOL
    USMCA Annex 31-A labor rapid-response cases (auto + aerospace)
    Mar 01, 2025 · ongoing

    USTR has filed 30+ rapid-response labor cases since 2021 against MX maquila plants (auto, aerospace, electronics) for denial of free-association rights. Findings can trigger import suspension on goods from the specific facility — has happened to GM Silao, Atento, VU Manufacturing. Not a sectoral ban but a per-plant tool.

  • ActiveCattle / beef · SPS / sanitary· USDA APHIS
    USDA APHIS suspends Mexican cattle imports — New World Screwworm
    Nov 22, 2024 · ongoing

    USDA halted live-cattle imports from Mexico after NWS detections moved north of Veracruz, Oaxaca and Chiapas. Sonora and Chihuahua exporters lost roughly USD 500M/month at peak. Partial reopenings rolled through 2025 contingent on screwworm-prevention protocols (sterile-fly releases, quarantine pens, dipping vats); Sonora ports of entry resumed first.

Cartel exposure on local sectors
  • Fuel / huachicolCore· Fuel tap (huachicol)
    via Cártel del Noreste

    Pemex pipeline taps along the border; CDN runs dedicated huachicol cells with their own tank-truck fleet.

    TamaulipasCoahuila
  • Manufacturing / maquilaCore· Kidnapping
    via Cártel del Noreste

    Maquila workers, executives, and US nationals kidnapped along the Reynosa-Matamoros-Nuevo Laredo corridor; signature CDN income stream.

    TamaulipasNuevo LeónCoahuila
  • Manufacturing / maquilaCore· Kidnapping
    via Los Metros

    Reynosa-based CDG fragment; the dominant maquila kidnapping operator in Reynosa.

  • Manufacturing / maquilaCore· Kidnapping
    via Los Escorpiones

    Matamoros-based CDG fragment; March 2023 kidnapping of four US nationals (two killed) drew federal heat.

  • Fuel / huachicolSignificant· Fuel tap (huachicol)
    via Cártel del Golfo

    Smaller-scale than CDN but active in the Reynosa-Río Bravo corridor.

  • Manufacturing / maquilaSignificant· Kidnapping
    via Cártel del Golfo

    Matamoros maquila workers; less consolidated than CDN due to Metros / Escorpiones split.

  • Trucking / cargoSignificant· Cargo theft
    via Cártel del Noreste

    Mex 85 / Mex 40 hijackings; targets electronics, appliances, alcohol.

    TamaulipasNuevo León

Political integrity

All →
  • FugitiveNarco-política · Apr 30, 2021
    García Cabeza de Vaca — federal warrant + cartel-tie allegations
    Francisco García Cabeza de Vaca (Governor of Tamaulipas 2016-22) · PAN
    Cartel ties:Cártel del Golfo
    Sectors: finance, real-estate

    FGR opened federal investigation 2021 for organized crime, money laundering, and tax fraud. Tamaulipas Congress (PAN-controlled) blocked stripping his immunity. After leaving office April 2022 he relocated to the US; Interpol notice unfulfilled. Allegations link him to CDG financial laundering during his governorship.

  • ConvictedNarco-política · Apr 20, 2018$3.5M+ USD Gulf Cartel payments alleged
    Tomás Yarrington — Gulf Cartel kickbacks, US extradition
    Tomás Yarrington (Governor of Tamaulipas 1999-2004) · PRI
    Cartel ties:Cártel del Golfo
    Sectors: finance, real-estate

    Captured in Italy 2017; extradited to US 2018. Pleaded guilty in S.D. Texas 2021 to conspiracy to commit money laundering. Took millions from CDG and CDS during and after his governorship; bought Texas real estate with proceeds.

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Active armed groups

Coordinates

Lat
24.27
Lon
-98.84