Baja California

Critical

Mexico · Mexican state · capital Mexicali

Risk score
107
composite (0–110)
Homicides / 100k
56
annual rate
Population
3,769,000
Active groups
5
with known territorial presence

Situation

Tijuana plaza is a long-contested border crossing. CAF remnants, Sinaloa, and CJNG factions fight for fentanyl & methamphetamine corridors into California. Long-running Russian-speaking criminal presence in Tijuana/Rosarito for real-estate laundering and sex tourism. Chinese Triad networks (Sun Yee On, 14K) supply fentanyl/meth precursors via Pacific shipping.

Trade exposure

USMCA tracker →
US-side restrictions affecting this state
  • ActiveTomato · Antidumping· US Commerce
    Tomato Suspension Agreement terminated — 17.09% antidumping duty
    Jul 14, 2025 · ongoing

    Commerce withdrew from the 1996 Tomato Suspension Agreement, imposing a 17.09% antidumping duty on fresh Mexican tomatoes. Sinaloa accounts for ~50% of MX tomato exports to the US; Sonora and BCN supply winter greenhouse tomatoes. Florida growers backed the move; Texas distributors and US restaurants opposed.

  • NegotiatedEnergy · Investor-state (USMCA Ch. 14)· USMCA Ch. 14
    Sempra Infrastructure USMCA energy dispute
    Apr 22, 2024 · ongoing

    Sempra and TC Energy contesting MX nationalist energy reforms (CFE preference, permit denials). Sempra's Energía Costa Azul LNG export terminal in Ensenada is the flagship US gas play into Asia; outcome shapes Sonora gas-pipeline routing.

Cartel exposure on local sectors

Hotspot feed

Auto-categorized · last 72h

  • Loading recent events…

Active armed groups

Coordinates

Lat
30.84
Lon
-115.28