Jalisco

Critical

Mexico · Mexican state · capital Guadalajara

Risk score
93
composite (0–110)
Homicides / 100k
26
annual rate
Population
8,348,151
Active groups
0
with known territorial presence

Situation

Birthplace and operational core of CJNG. Mass clandestine graves around the Guadalajara metro ("narco-fosas"). Puerto Vallarta tourism corridor under CJNG control. CJNG vs. Sinaloa-aligned Cárteles Unidos / Nueva Plaza fragments. Periodic narcobloqueos on Mex 15D and Mex 80; Tonalá / Tlaquepaque / Zapopan see targeted assassinations almost weekly.

Trade exposure

USMCA tracker →
US-side restrictions affecting this state
  • EscalatingAvocado · Cartel violence· USDA APHIS
    USDA periodically pauses Michoacán avocado inspections
    Jun 15, 2024 · ongoing

    Recurring pattern since 2022 — at least five short pauses driven by CJNG / Cárteles Unidos pressure on packing-house owners and direct threats against US inspectors in Aranza, Uruapan and Tancítaro. Each pause runs days to weeks before MX security commitments restart shipments. Hass avocado from Jalisco was added to the approved list in 2022 as a hedge but Michoacán still supplies ~80% of US imports.

  • EscalatingBerries · SPS / sanitary· FDA
    FDA recurring safety holds on Mexican strawberries / blackberries
    Mar 15, 2023 · ongoing

    Hepatitis A and Cyclospora outbreaks traced to Michoacán berry packers triggered import alerts; full holds rare but enhanced sampling slows lanes. Compounded by CJNG / Cárteles Unidos extortion of packing-house operators which limits operators' ability to invest in food-safety upgrades.

  • ActiveTomato · Antidumping· US Commerce
    Tomato Suspension Agreement terminated — 17.09% antidumping duty
    Jul 14, 2025 · ongoing

    Commerce withdrew from the 1996 Tomato Suspension Agreement, imposing a 17.09% antidumping duty on fresh Mexican tomatoes. Sinaloa accounts for ~50% of MX tomato exports to the US; Sonora and BCN supply winter greenhouse tomatoes. Florida growers backed the move; Texas distributors and US restaurants opposed.

Cartel exposure on local sectors

Cyber incidents

All →
  • ActiveRetail / SMBDigital extortion · Private · Apr 01, 2024
    CJNG digital-extortion campaign against Jalisco SMBs
    Target: Small/medium businesses in Jalisco · Attributed: CJNG cells · Guadalajara metro

    CJNG-affiliated operators using social media + leaked address data to dox business owners and demand piso payments via crypto wallets and OXXO Spin transfers. Reported pattern of doxing → physical visit if ignored.

Hotspot feed

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Active armed groups

  • No major armed groups tracked.

Coordinates

Lat
20.67
Lon
-103.34