Michoacán

Critical

Mexico · Mexican state · capital Morelia

Risk score
107
composite (0–110)
Homicides / 100k
53
annual rate
Population
4,748,800
Active groups
5
with known territorial presence

Situation

Tierra Caliente: CJNG vs. Cárteles Unidos. Avocado & lime extortion. Self-defense forces (autodefensas) ongoing. Los Cuinis handle CJNG money-laundering through mining concessions in the region.

Trade exposure

USMCA tracker →
US-side restrictions affecting this state
  • EscalatingAvocado · Cartel violence· USDA APHIS
    USDA periodically pauses Michoacán avocado inspections
    Jun 15, 2024 · ongoing

    Recurring pattern since 2022 — at least five short pauses driven by CJNG / Cárteles Unidos pressure on packing-house owners and direct threats against US inspectors in Aranza, Uruapan and Tancítaro. Each pause runs days to weeks before MX security commitments restart shipments. Hass avocado from Jalisco was added to the approved list in 2022 as a hedge but Michoacán still supplies ~80% of US imports.

  • EscalatingBerries · SPS / sanitary· FDA
    FDA recurring safety holds on Mexican strawberries / blackberries
    Mar 15, 2023 · ongoing

    Hepatitis A and Cyclospora outbreaks traced to Michoacán berry packers triggered import alerts; full holds rare but enhanced sampling slows lanes. Compounded by CJNG / Cárteles Unidos extortion of packing-house operators which limits operators' ability to invest in food-safety upgrades.

  • EscalatingLime · Cartel violence· MX SAGARPA / industry self-pause
    Tierra Caliente lime exports periodically halted
    Aug 09, 2022 · ongoing

    Lime growers in Apatzingán / Buenavista pause shipments when CJNG vs. Cárteles Unidos disputes spike — most recently Aug 2022 (10-day stoppage), Apr 2023 (5 days). US prices spike >40% during pauses. Not a formal US restriction but functions as one because there is no alternate winter supply.

Cartel exposure on local sectors
  • AvocadoCore· Extortion / piso

    CJNG controls packing-house piso payments in Tancítaro, Aranza, Uruapan. US inspector threats triggered the recurring 2022-25 USDA pauses.

  • AvocadoCore· Labor control

    Tancítaro Pueblos Unidos / autodefensas-turned-cartel rebrand; control packing-house staffing and per-truck taxes.

  • LimeCore· Extortion / piso

    Tierra Caliente lime growers (Apatzingán, Buenavista) pay per-kilo piso; periodic stoppages spike US lime prices >40%.

  • LimeCore· Extortion / piso

    Disputes Tierra Caliente lime piso with CJNG; cause of recurring industry pauses.

  • AvocadoSignificant· Extortion / piso

    Periphery of Michoacán + Edomex border avocado zones.

  • BerriesOpportunistic· Extortion / piso

    Strawberry / blackberry packers in Zamora and Los Reyes pressured for piso, intersecting with FDA safety holds.

  • LimeOpportunistic· Extortion / piso

    Tierra Caliente fragment that occasionally taxes lime growers.

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Active armed groups

Coordinates

Lat
19.57
Lon
-101.71