Sonora

Critical

Mexico · Mexican state · capital Hermosillo

Risk score
107
composite (0–110)
Homicides / 100k
51
annual rate
Population
2,944,800
Active groups
7
with known territorial presence

Situation

Border with Arizona. Caborca, Nogales, and Agua Prieta are major fentanyl & migrant smuggling corridors. Chapitos vs. Caborca war ongoing; Cártel del Tigre operating as Caborca-aligned migrant-extortion cell on Mex 2.

Trade exposure

USMCA tracker →
US-side restrictions affecting this state
  • ActiveTomato · Antidumping· US Commerce
    Tomato Suspension Agreement terminated — 17.09% antidumping duty
    Jul 14, 2025 · ongoing

    Commerce withdrew from the 1996 Tomato Suspension Agreement, imposing a 17.09% antidumping duty on fresh Mexican tomatoes. Sinaloa accounts for ~50% of MX tomato exports to the US; Sonora and BCN supply winter greenhouse tomatoes. Florida growers backed the move; Texas distributors and US restaurants opposed.

  • ActiveCattle / beef · SPS / sanitary· USDA APHIS
    USDA APHIS suspends Mexican cattle imports — New World Screwworm
    Nov 22, 2024 · ongoing

    USDA halted live-cattle imports from Mexico after NWS detections moved north of Veracruz, Oaxaca and Chiapas. Sonora and Chihuahua exporters lost roughly USD 500M/month at peak. Partial reopenings rolled through 2025 contingent on screwworm-prevention protocols (sterile-fly releases, quarantine pens, dipping vats); Sonora ports of entry resumed first.

  • NegotiatedEnergy · Investor-state (USMCA Ch. 14)· USMCA Ch. 14
    Sempra Infrastructure USMCA energy dispute
    Apr 22, 2024 · ongoing

    Sempra and TC Energy contesting MX nationalist energy reforms (CFE preference, permit denials). Sempra's Energía Costa Azul LNG export terminal in Ensenada is the flagship US gas play into Asia; outcome shapes Sonora gas-pipeline routing.

Cartel exposure on local sectors
  • Cattle / beefCore· Smuggling

    Cross-border cattle smuggling Sonora→Arizona, intensified after the 2024 NWS-driven legal-import suspension.

  • Manufacturing / maquilaCore· Direct production

    Industrial-scale meth labs and fentanyl precursor processing — the actual manufacturing arm of the Chapitos faction.

  • MiningCore· Extortion / piso

    Gold/silver mines across the 'golden triangle' (Sinaloa-Sonora-Durango) pay piso. Cananea copper mine (Grupo México) under periodic Salazar pressure.

  • MiningCore· Extortion / piso

    Caborca-area gold/silver mining concessions; uses Caro Quintero clan local influence.

  • Agriculture (other)Significant· Extortion / piso

    Asparagus and table-grape exports from the Caborca valley.

  • Fuel / huachicolSignificant· Fuel tap (huachicol)

    Pemex pipeline taps along the Pacific corridor.

  • MiningSignificant· Extortion / piso

    Cananea copper, Caborca gold/silver, plus smaller operations in Magdalena and Cumpas.

Cyber incidents

All →
  • InvestigatingGovernmentRansomware · Municipal · Aug 22, 2024
    Cajeme (Ciudad Obregón) municipal ransomware
    Target: Ayuntamiento de Cajeme · Ciudad Obregón

    Cyberattack disrupted municipal payment portals, public-records lookup, and vehicle registration services for roughly two weeks. Mayor's office initially denied a ransom demand; subsequent disclosures suggested operational data was exfiltrated.

  • ResolvedGovernmentRansomware · Municipal · Oct 04, 2024
    Caborca municipal services cyberattack
    Target: Ayuntamiento de Caborca · Caborca

    Municipal website and online services taken offline for approximately a week. Caborca is a notable target given its position in the Caborca Cartel war; intersection of cyber and physical extortion not ruled out.

Hotspot feed

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Active armed groups

Coordinates

Lat
29.30
Lon
-110.34